Description: This paper outlines a risk measurement framework in which risk measures are derived by qualifying cash-flow-based risk measures on the state of the firm's debt capacity. This risk framework overcomes some of the weaknesses of the popular 'at-risk' framework. From 2007 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS07-1.

Description: Property and casualty insurers face risks in many key areas, such as operations, natural catastrophes and underwriting. Among the underwriting risks is the potential financial impact of adverse loss reserves development.This paper illustrates a model of loss reserve risk that will incorporate how risk evolves over time at annual time horizons.

Description: This paper considers the ERM problem as an adaptation and stability problem of complex system development. The basic approach of W. Ross Ashby and its development by S. Beer are applied. The author advances the cybernetic functional feedback model as applied to the integrated ERM structural mechanism. Such formulation of the ERM problems seems promising to correctly detail and structurally integrate the various issues, including operational and financial systems linkage, key adaptation parameter of time and its different periods, optimal activity and others.

Description: These are the abstract, outline, graphs and tables of the paper “Conclusions from Michigan Studies of Social Security Financing”. By such studies we mean the papers prepared during the past five years by actuarial students and Cecil Nesbitt, and which have appeared in ARCH. The paper is in three parts: A lengthy Abstract, followed by 17 pages of text, graphs, tables and references. The third part is a 10 page Appendix which gives the proofs of text statements.

Description: This paper measures the extent to which specific firms have implemented ERM programs and assesses the value implications of these programs. We find a positive relation between firm value and the use of ERM. The ERM premium is statistically and economically significant and approximately 17 percent of firm value.

Description: Actuaries have traditionally recognized the links between risk and value, and in recent years have begun to incorporate aspects of modern financial economic theory into their traditional valuation and risk management approaches. As a result, there has been an increasing trend in the incorporation of explicit market-based risk adjustments into valuations, whether for internal or external purposes. The use of market-based metrics to reflect risk in valuations is becoming increasingly widespread—in fact, major external standard setters, including FASB, IASB, CFO Forum and the various parties setting standards for Solvency II, have prescribed varying levels of use of market-based metrics to measure risk in valuations. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: In a stochastic world consideration of only a few deterministic scenarios can potentially be dangerous. The aim of the present research is to study the computation of the cost of mismatch using stochastic interest rate models instead of scenario testing. In this paper, two commonly used Stochastic interest rate models are considered: the one introduced by Vasicek 1977 and the one proposed by Cox, Ingersoll and Ross 1985.

Description: Traditional mean-variance method does not take skewness of the random rate of return into consideration. It only considers minimum variance for a given acceptable rate of return, which limited the probability of obtaining higher rate of return. If the skewness of return for the portfolio is incorporated into model of traditional approach, then the resulting non-linear programing model is not computational efficient, which certainly is complicated. On the other hand, possibilistic programming provides more efficient techniques to solve the imprecision nature of rate of return and also preserves the original linear model.

Description: This paper compares the development of the more flexible reporting for pension commitments by the sponsoring employer in Australia to the standard-driven reporting in the United States and the United Kingdom. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: A European call option pricing model similar to the Black-Scholes equation [1] is derived. Like the Black-Scholes equation, the model is based upon an assumption of a lognormal distribution of the price of a risky, non-dividend-paying security at a given point in the future. However, unlike Black-Scholes, the market's risk preference is recognized through a parameter that permits refinement of the model to agree either with experience or with future advances in the underlying theory.